Fiat Lux

Russell Beattie has some interesting thoughts about the Treo, and by extension, the PalmOS world. His point that although Silicon Valley loves the Treo, it's statistically nonexistant in the greater universe of portable devices.

It was empirically obvious, most of the people in the room had a Treo, so it must be a really popular platform, right? Wrong. If you've got a Treo you might be a cutting edge technologist, but you're in the backwater of mobility. Trust me. (Actually, don't trust me, just look at the frigin' numbers.)

Now, I will admit that here in the U.S. Palm is doing better that its competitors. The numbers I've seen show that Palm phones actually outnumber both Symbian and Windows Mobile phones here by a double. But honestly, out of 170 million American subscribers, the total smart phone numbers are still ridiculously low, so I wouldn't pay much attention to this. The fact is that Palm is a niche player in a niche market (there are more cell phone subscribers in China - 300m - than there are *people* in the U.S.) as time goes by they will increasingly become less relevant as a platform, not the opposite.

I think he's being a bit too harsh about the potential future of PalmOS and the Treo, but he's not completely wrong either. Given how much PalmSource is struggling to maintain any kind of relevence in the US consumer market, given the declining number of big-name licencees and the declining number of PalmOS devices available in the market, there's signifcant reason to worry about the future if you're a PalmOS aficionado.

And yet -- people are passionate about their Treos for a reason. They're great devices. My Treo 180 died over a year ago and I still miss it. If I could afford a Treo 600, I'd have one. The power of a small, yet dedicated market -- especially when key sections of that market are VCs and other players -- should not be ignored.